Apple TV+ is right around the corner and to hear techno-evangelists tell the story, Apple has a big hit on its hands. Maybe. Bigger than Netflix? Maybe. In a few years. If.
Anti-Apple screed writer David Gewirtz:
Apple TV Plus will be bigger than Netflix, if Apple does a billion things just right
Snarky? I did some math and if Apple does just 1-million things right over the next few years, Apple TV+ can be a big success, peacefully co-exist with Disney+ and create some envy among some of the 1,527 competing streaming services.
First, Apple priced Apple TV+ about right. $4.99 a month. If the price were any higher it would be laughed at because most streaming video competitors have a huge back catalog by comparison. Apple will have dozens of shows, while NBCUniversal’s upcoming Peacock service starts with 15,000.
Second, Apple has the ability to get incredible customer reach in just a year or two. Every new Mac, iPhone, and iPad– about 200-million a year– comes with a one year Apple TV+ subscription. Not every customer will subscribe at $4.99 a year after the first year, but if only 30-percent did, those numbers alone are staggering and should cause Netflix investors to feel squeamish.
30-percent of 200-million (not yet counting how many of Apple’s current customers will sign up) is 60-million. At $4.99 a month, that’s a revenue stream of just under $300-million. A month. Or, put another way, just over $3.5-billion a year.
Netflix has less than 150-million customers. The biggest differences are monthly price and content catalog. Netflix charges more but customers get more; Over 50,000 TV shows an movies. It took Netflix a decade to get to 150-million paying customers and Apple could get to half that in a couple of years.
Remember, Apple needs to do a billion things just right to be bigger than Netflix. I think 1-million might do. But what do I know? Anti-Apple screed writers obviously know much more, which explains why they don’t bother to keep score.